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Research Abstracts Online
January 2009 - March 2010

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University of St. Thomas
College of Arts and Sciences
Department of Mathematics

PI: Douglas P. Dokken
Co-PI: Kurt Scholz

Warn on Forecast

The "warn on forecast” concept utilizes short-range high-resolution forecasts to provide longer public warning times for severe weather events. This is in contrast to the "warn on detection” concept presently used. This group’s preliminary studies will involve "Truth of Concept” verification of well-documented tornadic events, such as the St. Peter 1998 storm, and try to qualitatively recreate this event from available data. The researchers want to be able to recognize important tornadic features produced by the storm within corresponding time and geographical regions.

The numerical weather-modeling tool used is WRF (Weather Research and Forecast), constantly updated by government and academic researchers and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research). The output can be viewed and analyzed to determine processes that are most likely to contribute to tornado formation. The high computational needs of this kind of weather simulation necessitate the use of supercomputing resources.

Group Members

Luke Edholm, Research Associate
Thomas Hultquist, Research Associate
Patrick Shanahan, Research Associate