Research Abstracts Online
January 2010 - March 2011
University of Minnesota Twin Cities
College of Liberal Arts
PI: Cristina Arellano
Financial Crises and Fluctuations in Uncertainty
Recent empirical work has documented that recessions are times in which the cross section dispersion of productivity shocks across firms rise. In a standard model with complete markets such an increase in dispersion has no effect on aggregate output. These researchers explored a model with three key ingredients. First, the loans to firms cannot depend on their idiosyncratic shocks. Second, firms must choose the scale of their projects in advance. Third, firms can default if they have insufficient funds to pay for their debt. The parameters of the model are calibrated to be consistent with several features of the micro data on firms. A quantitative version of this model can generate aggregate fluctuations even though the only shocks are to the cross section dispersion of productivities. When this dispersion is high, firms optimally choose to contract the size of their projects in order to avoid default. Such a contraction resembles a credit crisis with low amounts of credit to firms.
This model required high computing power because the researchers needed to record the cross-section distribution of firms’ assets and planned size of projects in a model with aggregate shocks in a model with default, entry, and exit. Indeed, this may have been the first research to do so.
Patrick J. Kehoe, Co-Principal Investigator