Warn on Forecast

Abstract: 

Warn on Forecast

The “warn on forecast” concept utilizes short-range high-resolution forecasts to provide longer public warning times for severe weather events. This is in contrast to the “warn on detection” concept presently used. This group’s preliminary studies will involve “Truth of Concept” verification of well-documented tornadic events, such as the North Minneapolis 2011 storm, and try to qualitatively recreate this event from available data. The researchers want to be able to recognize important tornadic features produced by the storm within corresponding time and geographical regions. This will be done using scaling from vorticity data. The researchers will use a plot log of vorticity against log of scale (delta x) and calculate the slope of the associated line segments from the finest two grids. Such scaling has been done with mobile doppler radar data. A typical run will require at least seven nests to obtain the required resolution from the 32 km NARR grids. In addition they will use ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) to do idealized simulations and the data with a visualization tool developed by MSI staff member David Porter. The output can be viewed and analyzed to determine processes that are most likely to contribute to tornado formation. The researchers want to observe the initial formation of vortex lines at small scales and track the evolution into large structures and their involvement in tornado genesis. The grid resolution necessary to resolve a tornado is on the order of tens of meters to perhaps a hundred meters. Simulations of this size necessitate the use of the supercomputers. 

A bibliography for papers acknowledging MSI resources is attached.

Group name: 
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