Dr. Senait Senay

CFANS Interdisciplinary Init
College of Food, Ag & Nat Res Sci
Twin Cities
Project Title: 
Developing a Spatially Explicit Bio-Economic Dispersal Model to Aid With the Management of Halyomorpha halys

Halyomorpha halys (brown marmorated stink bug) is a serious polyphagous pest and nuisance. Originally from east Asia, it has invaded North America and Europe within the last two decades. It is challenging to both spatially and temporally characterize invasion risk from a pest such as H. halys that has multiple hosts and invasion pathways. However, there currently is a unique opportunity to develop applicable knowledge about the dispersal pattern, landscape level survival likelihood, and economic risk of H. halys, to be used as an input for a robust response system in the State of Minnesota before it permanently establishes. These researchers propose to acquire this knowledge through three research activities that will lead to the development of a high-resolution spatially explicit H. halys dispersal modeling framework that provides realizations and forecasts of different scenarios, which support decision makers in planning for the prevention, control or eradication of H. halys.

The three research activities and their outputs are summarized as follows:

  • Develop a high resolution, spatially explicit, agent-based dispersal model for H. halys, where the researchers will collate existing data on biological and environmental factors that affect movement of H. halys, and generate new data through research. They will also generate an H. halys-specific Minnesota-wide high-resolution spatial landscape data. They will then develop an efficient dispersal simulation framework for H. halys, parametrize it with the data they collect and standardize, and simulate the H. halys dispersal across Minnesota for the years 2010 – 2050.
  • Develop a bio-economic modeling framework to assess economic resource vulnerability to the risk of H. halys invasion, where the group will compile data on the value of rural and urban resources at risk of H. halys invasion. They will also collect and standardize data on the cost of H. halys control and eradication techniques, and collate data on the impact of H. halys invasion. They will then incorporate the economic data they collect and standardize into a bioeconomic modeling framework with the dispersal modeling program. They will generate a number of invasion-intervention scenarios to layout a system for reaching efficient management decisions.
  • Undertake a Value of Information (VoI) analysis by comparing the predicted resource outcomes of the proposed H. halys invasion-intervention scenarios with results from less parametrized invasion and intervention scenarios. The group will will run full-scale invasion-intervention scenarios from the first and second research components with alternative model specifications of less spatial resolution as well as less detailed dispersal data. They will then perform a VoI analysis to evaluate whether using the spatially explicit high resolution H. halys dispersal model developed under research activities 1 and 2 allowed them to predict management trade-offs more precisely. The goup will format all results and make them accessible through the GEMShare platform. The outputs will inform evidence-based approaches to managing and mitigating prospective losses from H. halys. The system can later be expanded to set-up easily customizable tools for modelling and visualization of dispersal of other priority species in the future.

Project Investigators

Yuan Chai
Terry Hurley
Bryan Runck
Dr. Senait Senay
 
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